Again the Chamber had the privilege to welcome Professor Göran Roos a keynote speaker and this time Professor Roos joined us virtually from the UK. The webinar was organised as a follow up on our webinar series COVID-19 impact on business, trade and investment with a focus on the economic impact. Professor Roos gave us a comprehensive insight into the present state of the Economy and the “New Normal” with implications for the Resource Extraction Industry.
As presented in the bio below Professor Göran Roos has many titles, accomplishments, and credentials including a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Technology and Engineering. A very prominent title awarded by 900 fellow peers of the organisation. ATSE is an Academy of independent experts helping Australians understand and use technology to solve complex problems. Göran was born and raised in Sweden and graduated from the Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg. Göran lived in Adelaide for many years and recently moved back to the UK with his family. Professor Roos has been a keynote speaker at a few SACC events and last year he presented a very interesting and challenging topic at a SACC Perth WA event on “Implications for the mining industry of moving to a low resource footprint value-creating paradigm” i.e. “what’s the new normal for the mining industry when the world is going green”.
Professor Roos’s presentation for this webinar with focus on the present state of the Economy and the “New Normal” is based on insights from statistics, facts, and conclusions from a research perspective.
Göran began to present the curve for the economy to get back to what we call the new normal and what the new normal is going to be. “In the beginning, there was a lot of optimism about a v-shaped recovery but in reality, it looks like it will be more of a “Nike Swoosh” recovery meaning a much slower recovery than anticipated It will take many years until we get back to where we were and even longer to where we ought to be”, said Professor Roos.
Looking at the GDP forecast for Australia the GDP drop was about 40%. “The employment is usually in these types of crisis situations a laggard and it will take longer for the employment to come back than the GDP”. The unemployment rate for Australia if we only see a single hit of the pandemic is forecasted to increase from 5% to 8 %. The unemployment issue is very large and it causes increased crime, mental health problems, and general disturbance issues in the economy. The three most impacted sectors with regards to unemployment are Accommodation & food, transport & storage and manufacturing.
Göran brought up the COVID-19 impact on the Gross National Income (GNI) based on the actual number of cases in each country plus the quarantine shock. The direct effect on the GNI in Australia was -8.7%, the effect on the GVC (Global Value Chain) was -2.1% compared to China where the direct effect was -11.3% and the GVC -2.4% and Sweden with 0% direct effect, as a result of no lockdown but the GVC was -3.6%.
The sector which has experienced the biggest change is the service sector and especially the airline and travel industry. Some airlines are looking at being nationalised and many airlines won’t be able to survive. Airfreight will become very expensive, airfares will go up due to the lack of air passengers especially business travellers.
Aspects of the new normal includes increased automation, supply chain diversification to increase resilience at a cost, re-localisation or restructuring of global value chains disrupted by digital ways of working and a rise of new business models.
“Globalisation is slowing down maybe even in some sectors and countries reversing quite dramatically, this means that we will have more protectionism in some sectors in some countries”.
These are just a few highlights of the presentation, to listen to the full recording of the webinar with the Q&A session please follow this link: https://youtu.be/rUOCvGCCT3k
Keynote speaker biography
Professor Göran Arne Roos holds a MSc in Engineering Physics from Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg, Sweden; an MBA in Strategy from INSEAD in Fontainebleau, France; an Advanced Postgraduate Diploma in Management Consultancy from Henley Management College in Henley-on-Thames, UK; and a Ph.D. in Business and Management from University of South Australia in Adelaide, Australia. Göran is a specialist in the field of intellectual capital and an expert in innovation management and strategy. He is a common advisor to organizations and governments around the globe. Göran is a CSIRO fellow and also a fellow of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE) and of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences (IVA). Göran was named “one of the 13 most influential thinkers for the 21st Century” by the Spanish business journal “Direccion y Progreso” and was appointed “Manufacturing for the Future” Thinker in Residence by the South Australian Premier for the year 2011 and an appointed member of the Prime Minister’s Manufacturing Leaders Group 2012/2013. He was selected for Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) Top 10 Speeches 2013: A collection of the most influential and interesting speeches from the CEDA platform in 2013 for the speech: “The future of manufacturing in Australia: Innovation and productivity”.
The session was moderated by Figge Boksjö, Chair of the SACC Perth WA Chapter.
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